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Kenya's national elections will be held in 2022, but already the country is being driven in a heated election mood as if the elections will happen tomorrow. The correct election year should be 2021 and this is why. There are indications that 2022 may become a class-based contest along the lines of narratives about the “haves and have nots,” which are also known in Kenya as the “dynasties and hustlers” (. This is wrong. Kenya is a perfect example of such a country due to the high degree of digital connectivity among its population, especially youth who live in the regions most affected by ethnopolitical tensions. For instance, the aftermath of the December 2007 contest led to months of heavy ethnopolitical violence that is estimated to have killed 1,200 people and forced more than 500,000 others to flee their homes (BBC, 2010). This situation laid the groundwork for violence following the 2017 general election as police and opposition supporters clashed violently, mainly in Nairobi and western Kenya, after the opposition leader Raila Odinga questioned the credibility of the results, successfully challenged them in a court case, and then refused to participate in the presidential election re-run (NYT, 2017). By. When combined with relatively low levels of digital literacy and limited access to reliable information sources, this situation is primed for misinformation and manipulation to incite violence during the election. Kenyatta's candidate for the 2022 presidential elections has been losing his backers one by one as turn to support his rival, Deputy President William Ruto. While democratic elections are usually promising, Kenya has developed a firmly established pattern of electoral violence since the rebirth of pluralist democratic politics (OHCHR, 2008). Everyone, starting from the media and the public, somehow believes the polls will be in 2022. This will encourage more unknown wannabes to surface ahead of the elections. For Kenya’s fourth president, the future is as clear as it is murky. This situation, along with many other factors, puts the country in a fragile situation. The Sentinel Project assists communities threatened by mass atrocities worldwide through direct cooperation with the people in harm’s way and the innovative use of technology. - 26/10/2020 Kenyan Deputy President William Ruto (left) and opposition leader Raila Odinga (right) listen to President Uhuru Kenyatta (center) give a speech in Nairobi, Kenya, on Nov. 27, 2019. An ominous cloud hangs over us as the 2022 elections approach. Kenya’s national elections will be held in 2022, but already the country is being driven in a heated election mood as if the elections will happen tomorrow. This is a list of the next general elections around the world in democratic polities. Bahá’í persecution in Yemen: Spotlighting Kayvan Ghaderi’s story, Ethiopia’s impending Balkanization: A short explainer on the country’s recent crisis, Fostering misinformation literacy: Runtu Waa Nabad in Somalia, The 2022 Kenyan General Election: An Analysis of New and Enduring Violence Risk Factors, Localized Early Warning: Predicting Atrocities at the Subnational Level. While conflict triggers are multi-dimensional and include historical, structural, institutional, legal, and cultural factors, they have always reflected tensions between ethnic identities. The changes, contained in a constitutional draft bill known as the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), are the result of a March 2018 peace deal between the president and opposition leader Raila Odinga. The Sentinel Project ©2018 - All Rights Reserved, Kenya is set to hold a general election on 9 August 2022, which will see changes for all elected positions within the government, including members of parliament, senators, and the presidency. A general lack of trust in the mechanisms of Kenya’s elections is one driver of post-election discontent and violence, and restoring faith in the country’s electoral process could thus be essential in preventing widespread anger over the results of the polls in 2022. On Oct. 2, the Jubilee Party’s National Management Committee recommended that Ruto be removed from his post after he and his allies stormed the party’s headquarters to try to hold a meeting. This is because the foundation of pluralistic democratic politics in the country was anchored on political party structures that originally segmented the country along ethnic lines. While democratic elections are usually promising, Kenya has developed a firmly established pattern of electoral violence since the rebirth of pluralist democratic politics (. The next Kenyan general election is scheduled to take place on 9 August 2022. It is also notable that social media platforms such as Facebook, which young Kenyans use extensively, were used by politicians to drive political intolerance as they promoted polarizing rhetoric (The Conversation, 2017). Major changes include introducing the positions of prime minister, two deputy prime ministers, and a leader of the official opposition while also expanding the legislature by adding 70 more parliamentary seats. sports Man Utd's clash with Liverpool called off by fan protests, ... “The Bill seeks to introduce a new date for a General Election that would be more favourable to Kenya’s circumstances,” the Bill reads in part. The subsequent general election in 2013 was relatively peaceful but ethnopolitical tensions continued to build up in most parts of the country, with Tana River County experiencing a series of massacres in late 2012 and early 2013 that killed over 170 people, wounded many more, and displaced tens of thousands (HRW, 2013). Pockets of political intolerance and violence have been reported in Murang’a, Githurai, and Kisii (Personal observation notes from Sentinel Project staff member, 2021). A growing rift between Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto could break up the ruling Jubilee Party ahead of 2022 elections, raising the risk of ethnic violence that could damage investor confidence in one of Africa’s leading economies. Civil society organizations and international non-governmental organizations, such as Human Rights Watch, raised concerns over grave violations of human rights as protests by opposition supporters were met with excessive use of force by the police, leading to the loss of many lives. Here is a tentative list of possible presidential aspirants in the 2022 general elections; 1. President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto currently, disagree on a number of issues including when to start campaigning for the 2022 elections and whether to have a national referendum before the election. Matungu by-election will determine who becomes president in 2022, Senator Cleophas Malala 2 months ago by Masolo Mabonga - The Matungu parliamentary seat fell vacant in November 2020 following the demise of MP Justus Murunga - Musalia Mudavadi's ANC party is fighting to recapture the seat in a by-election slated for March 4 The second in command has stated that he will not negotiate with ethnic and regional kingpins as part of his new strategy for the race to the state house. As BBI rallies continue to take shape with countrywide campaigns, many are viewing this as a campaigning strategy for 2022 when the general elections will be held. For instance, the aftermath of the December 2007 contest led to months of heavy ethnopolitical violence that is estimated to have killed 1,200 people and forced more than 500,000 others to flee their homes (, ). This means that the IEBC is in for a tussle with MPs and Treasury to fund the upgrade of the software in its bid to maintain the use of the Kiems kits in the 2022 polls. This violence primarily impacted multiethnic, low-income areas in Nairobi, Naivasha, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Voters will elect the President, and members of the National Assembly and Senate. In fact, hitherto, it has been happening that no sooner are the elections held and concluded than the campaigns for … A scenario where Kenyatta backs an opposition leader and Ruto is removed from office would likely result in localized levels of violence in the lead-up and aftermath of the ballot. The economic and social disruptions induced by the pandemic have eroded progress in poverty reduction in Kenya, forcing an estimated two million more Kenyans into poverty. 1. This situation, along with many other factors, puts the country in a fragile situation. – The COVID-19 pandemic has severely damaged major economic sectors, disrupted Kenyan society, and worsened the country’s debt burden. Kenya is set to hold a general election on 9 August 2022, which will see changes for all elected positions within the government, including members of parliament, senators, and the presidency. ruling Jubilee Party is also being pulled in different directions, with many members openly supporting candidates from other parties. Despite once being seen as a beacon of peace in Africa, during the 1992, 1997, 2007, and 2017 general elections the country experienced violence that killed many people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. "Kenya provides for freedom of expression and association," he said. A growing rift between Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto could break up the ruling Jubilee Party ahead of 2022 elections, raising the risk of ethnic violence that could damage investor confidence in one of Africa’s leading economies. This violence primarily impacted multiethnic, low-income areas in Nairobi, Naivasha, Kisumu, and Mombasa. Share Tweet. A new political Party, The United Democratic Alliance, associated with Deputy President William Ruto has been formally registered, ushering in … As the race to succeed president Uhuru Kenyatta gains momentum, Deputy President William Ruto has revealed his new political strategy ahead of the 2022 general elections. These tensions are generally related to ongoing campaigns over the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which is a draft bill calling for a constitutional referendum (see below for details) in June 2021 before the general election in August 2022. Despite once being seen as a beacon of peace in Africa, during the 1992, 1997, 2007, and 2017 general elections the country experienced violence that killed many people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. This situation was exacerbated by skewed information about attacks, which was spread mainly by those who had fled the violence, thereby heightening intercommunal tensions and distrust (Personal observation notes from Sentinel Project staff member, 2008). Such violence would likely also remain concentrated in the country's more ethnically-dominated rural areas. Reply. The 2022 general election will be the freest and the fairest in the history of Kenya, law Professor Makau Mutua has opined. The country’s constitution sets out that polls must be held on “the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year”, making 9 August 2022 the date of the next nationwide election. Civil society organizations and international non-governmental organizations, such as, , raised concerns over grave violations of human rights as protests by opposition supporters were met with excessive use of force by the police, leading to the loss of many lives. While many presumed presidential candidates are yet to […] This project will involve a multifaceted approach through collaboration with various organizations in order to incorporate their respective areas of expertise with the ideal outcome being a completely safe and secure election. At the same time, traditional political rivals have been working to bridge their disagreements while established alliances have been breaking apart and threatening new ethnopolitical divisions. ). Kenya’s most recent general election was held in August 2017. Simultaneously, distrust and anger continued to grow in the Rift Valley, Nyanza, and Nairobi due to the state’s failure to address the underlying causes of violence (HRW, 2013). Debate on who’s going to be Kenya’s 5th President continues to dominate the political discussions and shows in Kenyan media. Beyond the direct victims of physical violence, there were also severe economic impacts, as, reported at the time, explaining that “The mayhem has had a major impact on the country’s economy which has been one of Africa’s strongest. The … by The Sentinel Project | Mar 29, 2021 | Conferences | 0 comments. These include the following six considerations: The Sentinel Project and the Danish Refugee Council are collaborating to support a peaceful election process in 2022 by reducing the risk of violence and mitigating the impact of any violence that does occur. Opposition leader Raila Odinga was ranked a … Preparing to ensure peace during the entire electoral process is an urgent matter. President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto currently disagree on a number of issues including when to start campaigning for the 2022 elections and whether to have a national referendum before the election. Business leaders report huge losses and many predict that Kenya will be unable to meet projected growth targets.” This situation was exacerbated by skewed information about attacks, which was spread mainly by those who had fled the violence, thereby heightening intercommunal tensions and distrust (Personal observation notes from Sentinel Project staff member, 2008). A Luo in an election year. August 2022 is not as far off as it may seem. It’s official: Former Trade minister Mukhisa Kituyi and Kenya’s highest-ranking diplomat in the United Nations system will run for president in 2022. In terms of the referendum, Kenya is no stranger to a prime minister, with the post having been created and abolished twice before. The proposed referendum and the election together place Kenya in the midst of high-stakes political campaigns for the next 16 months. The economic fallout will almost certainly morph into an election issue as more Kenyans continue to be faced with the widening socioeconomic gaps in their society. The ongoing presidential succession debate has created new alliances between former adversaries and enmity between former allies, particularly as the current deputy president, William Ruto, has become a dissenting voice against the current president. There is an established precedent for rumours and misinformation (including disinformation that malicious actors deliberately spread), exacerbating political and intercommunal tensions in various countries. Smarting from a twin divisive presidential run, Kenya is poised to deliver on a population census, constitutional review, boundary delimitation and the epic 2022 General … February 16, 2021. While conflict triggers are multi-dimensional and include historical, structural, institutional, legal, and cultural factors, they have always reflected tensions between ethnic identities. But will it be postponed until 2027 because of the coronavirus pandemic? This expectation risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy if the state and various political actors do not address the many root causes of violence and reduce the high level of political polarization. This is because the foundation of pluralistic democratic politics in the country was anchored on political party structures that originally segmented the country along ethnic lines. President Uhuru Kenyatta suspends all church congregational worship and activities in Nairobi, Kiambu, Kajiado, Machakos and Nakuru counties until further notice. Following the announcement of presidential election results on December 30, 2007, Kenya ex- perienced the worst electoral violence since the inception of multiparty politics in 1992, leaving more than 1,100 people dead, 650,000 displaced, and the country deeply divided. It is also notable that social media platforms such as Facebook, which young Kenyans use extensively, were used by politicians to drive political intolerance as they promoted polarizing rhetoric (. Business leaders report huge losses and many predict that Kenya will be unable to meet projected growth targets.”. Down Load TV APP click link below http://t.ly/9jnvVisit our website click link below www.truelighttv.co.ke In fact, hitherto, it has been happening that no sooner are the elections held and concluded than the campaigns for … There seems to be a general expectation of violence in 2022. Deputy President William Ruto has emerged as the most preferred candidate for the 2022 elections, research firm IPSOS has said. The ruling Jubilee Party is also being pulled in different directions, with many members openly supporting candidates from other parties. The subsequent general election in 2013 was relatively peaceful but ethnopolitical tensions continued to build up in most parts of the country, with Tana River County experiencing a series of massacres in late 2012 and early 2013 that killed over 170 people, wounded many more, and displaced tens of thousands (, ). It is a race against time as both Houses of Parliament try to enact the BBI Bill and several related statutes ahead of the 2022 elections. As Kenya heads towards crucial elections in 2022, the season has opened for political alignments and formation of new parties. President Uhuru Kenyatta is walking a tightrope in drawing his 2022 succession matrix amid divisions among his power men, who have since aligned themselves to different camps. The retiring Chief Justice David Maraga was perceptive when he warned of drumbeats of political war. Tag Archives: Kenya 2022 election Themes of 2022 Kenya presidential campaign reinforced as coronavirus crisis continues. But demonstrations and attacks in cities such as Nairobi and Mombasa that result in short-term shutdowns of ports, roads and rail travel cannot be ruled out, as metropolitan areas are also home to all... To empower members to confidently understand and navigate a continuously changing and complex global environment. https://mutaha.com/politics/5-potential-2022-presidential-candidates Kenya’s widespread poverty, severe economic inequality, and long history of ethnically-biased development make such narratives especially appealing to many people with potentially incendiary effects. The. This background is relevant when looking ahead to the 2022 election because many of the same underlying risk factors continue to be present while new exacerbating risk factors have now appeared. Beyond the direct victims of physical violence, there were also severe economic impacts, as VOA (2009) reported at the time, explaining that “The mayhem has had a major impact on the country’s economy which has been one of Africa’s strongest. – With just 20 months left in his term, President Uhuru Kenyatta intends to engineer major constitutional changes that will affect the structure of his successor’s government. Kenya is set to hold a general election on 9 August 2022, which will see changes for all elected positions within the government, including members of parliament, senators, and the presidency. Posted on May 4, 2020 by Ken. ). REVEALED: Three years before 2022 election, Central Kenya politics already designed and ready to go. SHARES. Speculations also have it that Odinga is using his numerous historical handshakes to pave his way to state house come 2022 however, no verified sources have confirmed this. We are now developing approaches to support peacebuilding initiatives at local levels which will ensure that this contentious election’s political disputes do not turn into physical violence and our team looks forward to sharing more updates on this work as soon as possible. A similar pattern of violence as that exhibited in the lead-up to the 2007 elections has cropped up today. His words gave me an eerie feeling. 1 Cost assess - Why media must rise to the occasion in Kenya’s 2022 elections. Recommended articles. Published. 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